Analysis of Molybdenum Supply-Chain Vulnerability: Conditional Substitutability and Constraints on Usable Supply

Min Sung Joo

doi:10.7844/kirr.2026.35.4.30

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2026 Vol.35, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Analysis of Molybdenum Supply-Chain Vulnerability: Conditional Substitutability and Constraints on Usable Supply 몰리브데넘 공급망 취약성 분석: 조건부 대체성과 가용 공급력 제약을 중심으로

31 August 2026. pp. 30-42

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Abstract

As energy transition and advanced manufacturing increase the importance of stable access to critical raw materials, molybdenum (Mo) has become an important focus of supply-chain management. This paper examines molybdenum supply-chain vulnerability from the perspectives of demand conditions, midstream conversion processes, product-form market segmentation, and the conditional role of secondary supply. Mo is linked to product performance, equipment reliability, and process stability; therefore, even when substitution is technically feasible, short-term switching is constrained by specification changes, quality assurance, requalification, and adjustment of operating conditions. In addition, concentrates must be converted through roasting and refining into molybdic oxide (MoO₃), and then further processed into ferromolybdenum (FeMo), metal, and chemical or catalyst products before usable supply is formed. In 2025, the five largest producing countries accounted for 90% of global mine output, and many major producers relied on byproduct production from copper mines. U.S. average MoO₃ price and world mine-production trends from 1994 to 2025 show that major price upturns occurred amid long-term production expansion, while the post-2021 increase coincided with a decline in mine output, suggesting that aggregate indicators alone cannot explain supply stability. Secondary supply from spent catalysts and metal scrap can supplement usable supply, but its effectiveness varies with feedstock quality, recovery and refining costs, process selectivity, and regulatory and price conditions. Therefore, molybdenum supply-chain assessment should reflect conversion capacity, product-form bottlenecks, procurement structures, and secondary-supply conditions alongside aggregate production indicators.

Keywords

Molybdenum

Supply-chain vulnerability

Conditional substitutability

Usable supply

Product-form conversion

에너지 전환과 첨단 제조산업의 확대로 핵심 원자재의 안정적 조달이 중요해지면서, 몰리브데넘(Mo)은 공급망 관리의 주요 대상으로 주목받고 있다. 본 논문은 몰리브데넘 공급망 취약성을 수요 조건, 중류 전환 공정, 제품 형태별 시장 분절, 2차 공급의 조건부 작동 관점에서 검토하였다. 몰리브데넘은 제품 성능, 설비 신뢰성, 공정 안정성과 연결되어 사용되므로, 대체가 가능하더라도 규격 변경, 품질보증, 재검증, 운전 조건 조정이 필요해 단기 전환이 어렵다. 또한 정광은 배소·정련을 거쳐 산화몰리브데넘(MoO₃)으로 전환되고, 이후 페로몰리브데넘(FeMo), 금속, 화학·촉매 제품으로 다시 전환되어야 가용 공급력이 형성된다. 2025년 상위 5개국이 세계 광산 생산의 90%를 차지하며, 주요 생산국 다수는 구리 광산 부산물 생산에 의존한다. 또한 1994–2025년 미국 평균 MoO₃ 가격은 세계 광산 생산량의 장기 확대 속에서도 주요 상승 구간을 보였고, 2021년 이후 상승은 생산량 감소 국면과 맞물려 나타났다는 점에서, 총량 지표만으로 공급 안정성을 설명하기 어렵다는 점을 시사한다. 2차 공급은 사용후 촉매와 금속 스크랩 등을 통해 가용 공급력을 보완할 수 있으나, 원료 품질, 회수·정련 비용, 공정 선택성, 규제·가격 조건에 따라 효과가 달라진다. 따라서 몰리브데넘 공급망 평가는 정광 생산량 중심의 총량 지표를 넘어, 전환 역량, 제품 형태별 병목, 조달 구조와 2차 공급 조건을 함께 반영할 필요가 있다.

키워드

몰리브데넘

공급망 취약성

조건부 대체성

가용 공급력

제품 형태 전환

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Institute of Resources Recycling
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원리싸이클링학회
Journal Title :Resources Recycling
Journal Title(Ko) :자원리싸이클링
Volume : 35
No :4
Pages :30-42
Received Date : 2026-06-23
Revised Date : 2026-08-07
Accepted Date : 2026-08-11
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7844/kirr.2026.35.4.30

Resources Recycling ISSN:2765-3439(Print) 2765-3447(Online) 자원리싸이클링

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