Structural Causes of Element-Specific Supply Imbalances in Global Rare Earth Supply Chains

Min Sung Joo

doi:10.7844/kirr.2026.35.3.14

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2026 Vol.35, Issue 3 Preview Page Next Page

Article Review

Structural Causes of Element-Specific Supply Imbalances in Global Rare Earth Supply Chains 글로벌 희토류 공급망에서 원소별 수급 불균형의 구조적 원인

30 June 2026. pp. 14-26

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Abstract

Rare earth elements (REEs) are strategic materials indispensable to advanced industries, including electric vehicles, wind power, semiconductors, displays, and defense and aerospace applications. However, the global rare earth industry has repeatedly experienced element-specific supply imbalances and heightened supply risks that cannot be adequately explained by short-term market fluctuations or temporary policy interventions. This study analyzes the structural causes underlying these imbalances through two analytical axes: the structural mismatch between co-production constraints, whereby REEs are inevitably extracted as multi-element assemblages, and element-specific industrial demand, and the regional concentration of separation and refining capacity in a limited number of countries. These structural conditions have been embedded in the global rare earth industry for decades and have only recently become acutely visible as the energy transition accelerates and geopolitical tensions intensify. The key findings indicate that supply risks are determined less by geological scarcity than by the concentration of downstream processing capacity. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) increases from approximately 5,000 at the mining stage to approximately 9,000 at the refining stage, and the N-1 analysis indicates that only 35–40% of the projected 2035 magnet-grade REE demand could be met if China were excluded from supply. Furthermore, during the 2010–2011 supply crisis, Nd, Dy, and Tb prices surged several-fold, while La and Ce prices declined, demonstrating that identical policy shocks were transmitted asymmetrically across elements depending on their underlying demand structures. This structural concentration is the root cause of vulnerability, through which policy or regulatory shifts in a single country immediately translate into global supply disruptions. Although recycling currently contributes little in volumetric terms, it holds medium- to long-term policy significance as a means of partially reducing structural dependence on concentrated refining infrastructure. This study reframes rare earth supply challenges as a problem of supply chain architecture rather than resource scarcity, aiming to provide a structural risk management framework for future industrial strategies and policy responses.

Keywords

Rare earth elements

Supply imbalance

Co-production

Supply chain concentration risk

Structural risk management

희토류(Rare Earth Elements, REEs)는 전기자동차, 풍력발전, 반도체, 디스플레이, 국방·항공우주 등 첨단산업 전반에 필수적으로 활용되는 전략 자원이다. 그러나 글로벌 희토류 산업은 특정 원소를 중심으로 반복적인 수급 불균형과 높은 공급 리스크를 경험해 왔으며, 이러한 현상은 단기적인 시장 변동이나 일시적 정책 조치만으로는 충분히 설명되기 어렵다. 본 논문은 이러한 불균형의 구조적 원인을, 다원소 혼합 산출에 따른 결합 생산의 제약과 원소별 수요·공급의 불일치, 그리고 분리·정제 공정의 특정 국가 집중이라는 두 축을 중심으로 검토한다. 이 구조는 수십 년간 글로벌 희토류 산업에 내재되어 있었으나, 에너지 전환 가속화와 지정학적 긴장의 심화로 인해 최근 들어 본격적인 공급망 리스크로 가시화되었다. 분석 결과, 공급 리스크는 자원의 지질학적 희소성보다 채굴 이후 가공 단계의 집중에 의해 규정된다. 원광 채굴 단계 HHI 약 5,000에서 정제 단계 약 9,000으로 집중도가 심화되며, 중국 제외 시 2035년 자석용 희토류 수요의 35~40%만 충족 가능하다는 N-1 분석이 이를 뒷받침한다. 또한 2010~2011년 공급망 위기 당시 Nd·Dy·Tb는 수배 급등한 반면 La·Ce는 오히려 하락하는 비대칭적 가격 반응이 나타났으며, 이는 동일한 정책 충격이 원소별 수요 구조에 따라 상이하게 전달됨을 보여주는 실증이다. 이 집중 구조가 특정 국가의 정책·환경 규제 변화를 글로벌 수급 충격으로 즉각 전이시키는 취약성의 근원이다. 재자원화는 현재 공급량 기여는 제한적이나, 정제 공정의 의존을 부분적으로 완화할 수 있는 수단으로서 중장기적 정책 의의를 지닌다. 본 연구는 희토류 수급 문제를 자원 부족이 아닌 공급망 구조의 설계 문제로 재정의하며, 구조적 리스크 관리 관점에서의 정책적 기틀을 제시하고자 한다.

키워드

희토류

수급 불균형

결합 생산

공급망 집중

구조적 리스크 관리

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Institute of Resources Recycling
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원리싸이클링학회
Journal Title :Resources Recycling
Journal Title(Ko) :자원리싸이클링
Volume : 35
No :3
Pages :14-26
Received Date : 2026-02-05
Revised Date : 2026-04-06; 2026-04-30
Accepted Date : 2026-05-13
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7844/kirr.2026.35.3.14

Resources Recycling ISSN:2765-3439(Print) 2765-3447(Online) 자원리싸이클링

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